Winner Checklist — Go / No-Go Decision Framework
Data confidence: MEDIUM — Section 1 (narrative gate) validated against 1 winner + 16 hard failures. 100% filter rate on failures at 4+/6 threshold. BC and Migration sections still need loser-side on-chain validation.
The master checklist for evaluating whether a coin is worth entering. Covers narrative, bonding curve signals, and post-migration volume.
When to Use This
| Situation | Which section |
|---|---|
| Saw a narrative trigger (tweet, news) | Section 1 first |
| Token just launched, BC active | Section 1 + 2 |
| Token just migrated to pumpAMM | Section 1 + 2 + 3 |
| Evaluating a trader’s pick after the fact | Section 2 + 3 |
Section 1 — Narrative Check
Score 1 point per item. Score 4+/6 → proceed to Section 2.
[ ] Source is a verifiable public figure (not anonymous)
[ ] Source has 1M+ followers OR is a known industry CEO/founder
[ ] Token name = exact word or phrase used by the source
[ ] The underlying event is organic (not manufactured for the coin)
[ ] The thesis can be stated in 1 sentence without crypto jargon
[ ] There is lore / meaning / cultural resonance to the name
SCORE: ___ / 6
< 4: Stop. Narrative too weak.
4–5: Proceed with caution.
6: Maximum conviction narrative.
Section 2 — Bonding Curve Signals
Check these if BC is still active. All 3 required to proceed.
[ ] BC fill time is < 20 minutes (or < 50% filled at < 10 min)
→ How to check: Solscan token page, launch tx timestamp vs now
→ embers baseline: 23 minutes (MODERATE — pre-new-boundary; would be borderline today)
[ ] Dev bought at launch (visible in launch tx)
→ How to check: Solscan launch tx — first buyer = dev wallet
→ embers baseline: $856 (10 SOL)
[ ] Multiple sniper wallets visible in first Solscan transactions
→ How to check: First 10 txs on BC pool, count unique wallets
→ embers baseline: 16 unique wallets in first 2 seconds
SCORE: ___ / 3
< 2: Weak BC signal. Very risky.
2: Acceptable.
3: Strong BC signal.
Section 3 — Post-Migration Volume (at t=30s)
Check these exactly at t=30s post-migration. Enter at t=45s if 4+/5 pass.
[ ] Total volume > $300 in first 30s
→ embers: $752 ✅
[ ] At least 1 buy > $100 in first 30s
→ embers: $169 whale buy at t+8s ✅
[ ] Same wallet bought 3+ times (bot accumulation)
→ embers: CYZcucbb — 8 micro-buys ✅
[ ] Buy transaction count > sell transaction count
→ embers: 12 buys / 8 sells ✅
[ ] Net sell pressure < -$500
→ embers: -$380 ✅
SCORE: ___ / 5
< 3: Do not enter. Migration too sell-heavy.
3: Borderline — small position only.
4–5: Enter at t=45s.
Hard No-Entry Rules (Any One Fails = Skip)
Regardless of scores above, do NOT enter if:
- ❌ Zero buys > $50 in first 30s post-migration — no smart money at all
- ❌ Only 1–2 unique buy wallets in first 30s — manipulation risk
- ❌ Net sell pressure > -$1,000 in first 30s — coordinated dump, not BC exit
- ❌ The token’s BC fill time was > 60 minutes — too slow, no momentum
- ❌ BC already > 50% filled when you first see the narrative — missed the best entry
- ❌ The “source” tweet is more than 2 hours old — narrative already stale
- ❌ Token name contains “scam”, “rug”, “ponzi”, “exploit”, or “drain” — bot trap, zero post-migration demand. Validated: 5/5 hard failures, 0% win rate. (Added Apr 28 — hard-failure-postmortem-apr2026)
- ❌ Same name or close variant already migrated this session — original captures the meta, every copy fails. Validated: Dog In Vest vs Vesting ($307K). (Added Apr 28 — hard-failure-postmortem-apr2026)
Entry Timing Decision
Narrative score 4+/6 → BC score 2+/3 → Migration score 4+/5
↓
ENTER AT t=45s post-migration
Position: 3–7% of capital
Stop: -15%
Target: +5% (50%), +10% (50%)
For position sizing rules, see theo-style. For migration-specific entry playbook, see migration-alert.
Updating This Checklist
Every new coin studied should result in updating at least one threshold:
| When to update | What to update |
|---|---|
| New winner studied | Confirm thresholds still pass |
| First loser studied | Identify which signal was absent — tighten that threshold |
| 10+ cases | Calculate hit rate per signal, reprioritize weights |
Score History
→ Full score history (all 16 failures + embers winner): hard-failure-postmortem-apr2026
The complete table lives in the postmortem to keep it in one place. Summary: embers (6/6 | 3/3 | 5/5 ✅), 16 hard failures (all scored ≤ 2/6, all filtered by Section 1). 100% filter rate on failures at 4+/6 threshold.